Navigating Bias in Scouting: The Matas Buzelis Evaluation

Primary creator? Point Forward? Who really is Matas Buzelis, the basketball player?

Flux. That’s the word I would use to describe the beginning of a draft cycle. Draft night comes to a close and the prospects we have spent a year or more with, learning the ins and outs of their game, have graduated onto the NBA. The slate is wiped clean (outside of a few notable NCAA returners) and a new batch of prospects step into the spotlight. In some NBA draft classes, standout talents are evident (Wemby, AD, Zion etc) and considered 'can't-miss' prospects, but more often than not, the top spot is highly contested and uncertain, or in flux. During the off-season is when I usually get my first introduction to the top high school recruits. For most of these guys, I have very little preconceived notions about their game before I turn on the tape, sometimes not even aware of how the prospect looks physically. Others, however, are notable enough for me to have heard more about before I form my first impressions. One of those names I heard a lot was Matas Buzelis. 

I kept hearing about the Chicago born Lithuanian-American, describing him as this 6'10 “point forward”, who could handle pass and shoot. Many outlets had him ranked #1 as well. So by the time I turned on the tape I already had subconscious expectations both in his ability and role. As you can probably tell, that really impacted my first impressions on the 19 year old. First game I watched was vs Montverde. He looked more stiff than I liked, and really struggled to create off the bounce vs guys with NBA level athleticism like Sean Stewart.

I watched a few more games and came away underwhelmed. With the image of “Matas: the on ball creator” floating in my head, I was holding him to a standard he just wasn’t meeting. Looking back now, this was a very valuable lesson in how coming in with biases and trying to force archetypes or roles onto a prospect early on can lead to a very rigid evaluation process. I revisited the high school tape as the season approached I slowly started to see Matas in a new light. As I focused more just on the skills he showcased, I began envisioning a wider set of possibilities of what he could become. Instead of strictly evaluating him based on my preconceived role expectations, I allowed the aggregation of all the skills he was flashing, micro to macro, shape my perspective. That picture that started to form quickly began to intrigue me, a complementary forward able to fufill many roles on the court. Which strayed significantly away from the 6’10 primary creator box I was trying to shove him into, and dismissing him when he didn’t fit so well. Buzelis decided to take the pro route and join the G League Ignite. Injured to start the year, I kept an eye on when he would return, eager to see the progress he’s made since highschool. Once the all-star break hit, I found the time to watch the majority of the minutes Matas has played so far for the Ignite. What came out of that experience inspired me to write my thoughts down on Buzelis and how I feel about him as a basketball player, both right now and in the league, as well as tackle the impact of bias when evaluation prospects.

The Defense

Going off of his high school film and numbers, the impression many people would get of Matas is that his shot is one of his best selling points. The 6’10 forward shot above 43% from 3 at Sunrise Christian. Yet, after my film study, there are a few of skills that make Matas’ pop for me in this class, and none of them are related to the ability to space the floor. The first is his aptitude on the defensive end of the floor. Matas displayed an adeptness in multiple facets of defense. Lets start with his off-ball/team defense. I’ll break it down into a few categories: secondary rim protection, rotations, closeouts.

Secondary rim protection

Once I concluded the few high school games I watched, I didn’t have a very good feel on Matas’ ability on the defensive end of the floor. Trying to understand the level of defender a prospect can be in the chaotic and often unstructured high school environment is a challenge. I can get a better grasp for a prospect’s athletic tools and movement skills rather than the other areas of defense. Areas like understanding and execution of scheme, effort, attentiveness and decision making. Many of those have prerequisites of structure in order to fairly be evaluated, something a good chunk of high school games lack. So I didn’t come in with much expectations for Matas on defense. Primarily, my interest lay in observing how he would hold up, focusing on potential issues rather than expecting outright positive contributions. Yet, early in my evaluation, I was pleasantly surprised by the proficiency for rim protection he began to display – rotating on time and effectively challenging shots at the rim. He consistently is attentive to potential threats and has a really quick load time. Even if he rotates a bit too late he still gives him self a chance, being able to get in the air so quickly.

Matas, as of writing this, ranks 10th in the G League and 1st on the Ignite with an average of 1.9 blocks per game. Yet, a more revealing statistic is his commendable 50% success rate in limiting layups attempted against him at the rim, as per Synergy. For comparison, his teammate Izan Almansa, a center who has played 41 games, is allowing 55% on layups attempted against him at the rim. Notably, Matas, with 31 games played, has faced 14 more shots at the rim (72 vs. 58). While Izan is frequently tasked with switching onto the perimeter, potentially explaining the lower volume, it underscores Matas' defensive prowess as a rim protector. He sometimes doesn’t even let the possession end in a rim attempt. Rotating on time to deter any attempt. These don’t show up on the stats but are very valuable plays.

As NBA offenses get more and more potent and spaced out, relying just on the center position to prevent easy baskets at the rim isn’t enough. Teams are just too talented and creative, and have figured out many ways to clear to occupy the primary rim protector on the floor. Either through cleverly design sets or a high level of spacing. The value of having another additional player being able to take on that responsibility in a pinch is immense. We’ve even seen more teams in the past season opt to go for 2 big-man lineups in order to maximize this, even at the expense of ball handling and/or spacing (Horford/Williams, Mobley/Allen, Gobert/KAT etc). Defense in basketball, much like a well constructed fortress, embodies structural elements, drawing parallels between their architectural characteristics. The term “shell” is used commonly to describe defense, its a structure made up of multiple elements working together to avoid breaking. When addressing points of failures in a structure, architects introduce redundancies, which are additional support structures, to prevent total structural failures. In basketball, the primary rim protector is the most vulnerable point under stress. Just as in architecture, why not maximize redundancies on defense to avoid a total breakdown? This is why teams are figuring out that having a competent secondary rim protector on the floor is paramount to an elite defense. They bring positive redundancies to prevent a total collapse. It contributes to the overall resiliency of a team, being able to adapt to more situations and predicaments. With that going through my mind, seeing Matas flash this skill was quite exciting. Everyday its getting harder and harder for defenses to hold up in today’s NBA climate. Rather than a back and forth battle, defense has become a war of attrition, being able hold out just enough for you to outscore the opponent.

Now, I still have questions about Matas’ absolute ceiling in this area, particularly stemming from my concerns about his wingspan. Going off the Nike 2022 Hoop Summit measurements, Matas was listed at 6’10 with a 6’10 wingspan. This aligns with my eye test; he doesn't appear to have an distinctly long wingspan on the court. There were many instances of Matas making the right rotation, being there to challenge the shot, but missing the ball by a few inches. 6’10 is still manageable to contest shots at the rim, especially as a secondary rim protector and not a primary one. Nevertheless, its potentially a notable limitation he could face as he makes the jump to the next level.

Rotations and closeout defense

In concert with his ability to challenge shots at the rim, Matas displayed a consistent awareness and activity level on defense. He was most often the low man defending the corner and many of his responsibility revolved around tagging the roller and helping out around the rim. Although he did still show talent in helping out in other areas of the floor. Digging down from the nail or wing, consistently showing his hands to discourage easy passes. All this, in harmony with his rim protection ability, presents a really exciting team defending package. Matas is averaging 1.0 steals per game. He rarely compromises his position and gambles, often getting his steals though deflections and good positioning.

Although he’s frequently pretty sharp as a team defender, it doesn’t mean Matas is infallible. Now and then, there would be instances of him positioning himself incorrectly or losing track of his man. It hasn’t been frequent enough for me to log as a outright concern, but still notable to mention.

After discussing Matas' proficiency as a help defender, including protecting the rim, timely rotations, and activity in the lanes, the next aspect to assess is his performance when closing out on a defender. In a league where the need to recover space becomes increasingly crucial, the ability to close out with correct technique, proficiency, and control is paramount. Once that first crack in the defense widens, any closeout that gets blown by turns that crack into a ravine. Conversely, being able to contain the offensive player when closing out, significantly helps lessen the difficulty of the next defensive rotation. So with that in mind I was curious how Matas’ fared on that end. The results were a bit mixed. There were plenty of possessions where Matas was able to deter the shot, but also maintain enough control stay attached to the drive. He even was able to block a couple of threes as well. On the other side, there were still instances of poor positioning or an out of control closeout. He has a tendency to wind up to block some 3pt attempts which resulted in a few blow-bys. Overall I came away encouraged by his ability to execute on closeouts, the ability to block 3s really made up for the miscues.

The majority of the notes I had by the end of Matas’ film study pertained to the aspects of his team defense we discussed. Part of it was the unexpectedness of it, I didn’t have the impression of Matas being this level of off-ball defender so I was pleasantly surprised. The other part of it is the value of having a player with these traits combined with the size Buzelis has. However, in order to see what the ceiling for him was on the defensive end of the floor, I was keen on how he performed on ball. How well did he move his feet and what range of players could I project him to guard at the next level? Well lets see if we can answer those questions next.

On ball defense

Even though being a positive team defender is valuable, if a player is a complete liability on ball it kills the chance of being more than just a neutral overall defensive player. Conversely, a solid on-ball defender performing poorly off-ball is potentially more detrimental, considering that a significant portion of a player's defensive responsibilities involves off-ball situations (Jaylen Brown is the poster boy for this). Essentially, the best defenders in their position and in the league are proficient in both areas, even if they excel more in one department than the other. I kind of hinted earlier that my biases coming in had me more concerned whether Matas was a liability or not. He was a more on ball player with a slim stature being touted for his offensive prowess, its hard not to subconsciously pigeonhole him as a potential liability on defense. However, as I made my way through his Ignite tape, that question started to fade. Witnessing his solid agility, I quickly dismissed the worry that he’d be a liability.

I would say there are 2 things Matas does really well on ball. The first being his focus on keeping his chest on the offensive player with his hands high. Secondly, while in that position he is very adept at quickly sliding his feet to keep up. The fact that his hands are high most of the time means a lower chance of being a victim of foul baiting. The best players at getting to the line take advantage of poor discipline and reaching in. For the most part, Buzelis does a good job at avoiding this. This means he’s always in a position to end the posession in a contest if a shot goes up or deflect a pass. Combined with his shot blocking instincts, he can really bother some players trying to attack him.

As impressed as I was with his ability to stay with guys, there were still instances where I could see some limitations. Quicker guards could get a shoulder past him and bigger players had moments where they overwhelmed him with their strength. Another thing that seemed to get him at times were quick half spins, shifting him just enough for players to get a step on him. Yet, he rarely got completely blown by from a standstill. Most of the time he’s just a step behind, which I find to be a good sign, he’s athletically capable vs G League offensive players.

I believe Buzelis has all the tools to become a solid on ball defender at the next level. He’s a player who can slide his feet well, execute closeouts at a solid level. On top of his ability to contain the ball at his position, Matas shows some level of defensive play making with active hands gaining deflections and blocks. While maybe he won’t be a guy you that will “lock down” or hound the opposing team’s primary creator, and quicker guards can be struggle at times. He can do a respectable job keeping the ball in front of him.

Screen Navigation

I wanted to end the defense section by discussing screen navigation. The reason for this is that its a skill that pertains on and off ball. Chasing shooters around screens. Fighting through a cross screen to avoid giving up deep post position. Trying to stick to the team’s best perimeter creator through screen after screen as they hunt for a switch. Screen navigation skill that is constantly being tested through out a game. Bigger players for the most part will always struggle more than guards to get around screens. Its easier to get “skinny” to slither through a screen when there is less of you body mass wise. That’s why the ones who can (OG Anunoby, Jaden Mcdaniels and Herb Jones of the world) are so valuable. Matas struggled to get around screens, often getting taken out of the play. Part of it is his strength deficit right now, finding it a struggle to fight through hard screens. Another part is his technique was poor often just running into the screener without a plan to get around.

Even with the struggles, the fact that Matas is 6’10 means switching with him is viable in most situations, so the need to constantly fight through screens is neutered. On top of that, while not exactly a screen, Matas showed a willingness to attempt to blowup dribble hand offs whenever he got the chance. Often lunging between the handoff to disrupt it.

To finish off the defensive evaluation, Matas is without a doubt in my eyes a good defensive prospect. Between the size, secondary rim protection potential, ability to slide his feet and good instincts off ball, there is much to work with. As I pointed out in the intro, my high offensive expectations for him in Buzelis school skewed my initial negative view of him. Conversely, my low expectations for his defense might have led to surprises, and me getting excited, potentially causing me to overlook certain concerns. I’ve mostly discussed how bias can negatively impact an evalauation, but the opposite can occur as well. As I noted earlier in the secondary rim protection portion, I still think there are some limitations that could stop Matas from being a really high impact defender. Mainly his length relative to his height and strength issues. The strength concerns are the most addressable, but the length struggles might hurt him against the best athletes in the NBA. Yet, when he puts it all together one can really see some eye catching defensive possessions.

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The Offense

As mentioned before, I had more of an understanding of Matas’ offensive skillset in high school than his defense. After I stopped trying to view him as a primary creator, I got more comfortable with the idea of him being a shooting forward who can put the ball on the floor. Funnily enough, as I wrapped up his Ignite film, his 3pt jump shot started to become one of my bigger concerns on this end of the floor. But we’ll get to that later in this section. The most intriguing part of Matas’ game on offense begins inside the arc.

Driving

Use of the shoulder

Lets start off with his driving game. Per Synergy, 19% of Matas’ possessions resulted in a drive. For comparison, Ron Holland was at 18.8%, Tyler Smith 8.5%. Drives here don’t count PnR ball handling rim attempts, so that explains Ron who has some special potential as a slasher being lower than Buzelis. Nonetheless, the main point is show that he was a pretty frequent driver of the basketball. It often was his first plan of attack with the ball in his hands. His ability to use his shoulder when driving to discard defenders or draw fouls really caught my eye. He consistently seeked the body of his defender in order to create more space for himself to finish. Buzelis also tried to go right through the body of the defender when he had momentum going downhill.

I really was encouraged with his focus on shoulder bumping his man on these drives. Not only will it help him generate more free throws, but as Matas grows in strength it will become more and more effective. Currently he’s at a strength deficit the majority of the time in his match-ups, but as that improves he’ll be able to create space on defenders of higher physical calibre. However, this is not to say Buzelis was consistently excelling in this area. Whenever he couldn’t his use his shoulder and make contact with the defender, the results often were ugly. With the neutral wingspan we discussed earlier defenders are able to bother his shot if he can’t create space before rising up to finish. Buzelis is converting just 47% of his layups at the rim per Synergy. The strength is an obvious contributing factor to this, but also the touch on his finishes sometimes let him down. When he’s going really fast, the ability to softly lay the ball in off the glass needs to improve.

Another aspect I appreciated were the little bits of driving craft Matas displayed. He utilized the decelerating “slow step” we’ve seen Luka popularize. Combined with his attempt at bumping the defender he was able to get good looks. He also attempted this Dwayne Wade like “windmill” gather, where he sweeps the ball over his head, in order to get through digs.

Overall I think Matas has a okay level of burst, he can catch defenders off guard for some blow-bys like below. They ran a few ghost screens for him and he took advantage of the defenders hesitation to get good looks.

However, he still will get cut off frequently on his drives. Some of it is his loose ball handling (we’ll get to that later), not just the lack of top level burst. So this means Matas needs to have a plan for when he inevitability gets cut off on his drives.

Counters

While burst in a prospect is a very important factor when it pertains to their ability to get in the paint, it doesn’t automatically translate to being a great driver. It's quite fitting that the term 'driving' is used both in basketball and for operating a vehicle. Much like a driver skilfully maneuvers a track with its twists, turns, and straightaways, a basketball player must exhibit control and speed while navigating the court's dynamic landscape, adapting to its challenges and strategically advancing towards the goal. A vehicle only able to perform well on a straightaways will be unable to deal with a sudden left turn. Similarly, players who can only play at a single speed and lack the ability to react quickly when denied will always have a cap on the level of driver they can reach. With that in mind I was curious how Matas dealt with his first option being denied. The results were quite encouraging. He quite often showed the ability to improvise and routinely had an answer for the way defenses were guarding him. Every drive that got cut off was answered with a spin in the opposite direction, a step-through after a fake, or a body bump into a Dirk fade he particularly enjoyed. His patience in the middle of the floor was notable as well, rarely panicked and looked under control the majority of the time.

Buzelis also displayed this step-through move quite frequently. When playing off of a pump-fake or shoulder bump, He often stepped through, gaining ground and used his size to finish over the top. Its a move that really fits his size and skill level.

Matas ability to counter when driving, and just operate in the middle of the floor is general is a definite strength. He has good awareness of his surroundings, and is very coordinated. Overall I believe he has good potential as a driver. The willingness to embrace contact and use his body to create space is very promising. Combined with his skill level and counters, the future looks optimistic. However, a very fair concern in regards to his driving overall is the finishing. Like we discussed earlier he’s shooting 56% at the rim and 47% on layups, per synergy. For his size this is pretty concerning. I think as he gets stronger that will improve. As his core strength improves he’ll be in less comprising positions when trying to finish through contact. He had a few instances of missing open layups, which has me raising my eyebrows on the level of touch he has. I think he has okay to solid touch, mostly due to his comfort in the midrange area but misses like below are notable. We’ll get more into the touch in the shooting section.

Ball handling

Buzelis’ ball handling is pretty solid for his size, however, he still struggles in certain areas. He’s often weak with the ball, and prone to defenders poking it away. His upright nature doesn’t help this, often sporting a high dribble when navigating the floor. This is something I believe he’ll tighten up over time though, he still showed some tight reactive crossovers and handling sequences amidst the struggles.

Off ball game

Offensive rebounding

When someone describes a player as good off ball, the first thing that pops into many people’s heads is cutting and play finishing, either from 3 or at the rim. Those are vital skills that have significant impact off ball, but they don’t completely encompass off ball play. Screening and offensive rebounding are often under discussed in the department of off ball play. These are not flashy skills, so it's understandable to overlook them. In the case of offensive rebounding, it presents a more challenging variable to control compared to shooting or cutting. Nonetheless, it still can provide value especially at the forward position. Being a Toronto Raptors fan myself, I witnessed a rookie Scottie Barnes provide positive offensive value almost purely though his ability to screen, cut and grab extra possessions. The quick load time Buzelis has when leaping really lends itself to the offensive glass. His second jump speed is quick and he can often jump 4-5 times in succession before the defense has jumped more than a couple of times.

Buzelis’ offensive rebound percentage is only 5%, per NBA G League stats. So the stats don’t really support much optimism in this area. Yet, his proficiency as a second jumper popped on the tape, so its possible we can see growth in this area. The best offensive rebounders in the league are either big-men or forwards with very positive wingspans. Matas doesn’t really fit either of those catagories, so I have my doubts that this will be an absolute stand out skill. It still could be a nice trait to his game that complements the rest of his kit. Another note before we move on, the amount of tip ins and bunnies he missed on put backs supports my building concerns about his touch. This is something I’m going to keep an eye on the rest of the year.

Cutting

In high school with the heavy creation load and less spacing, there wasn’t much I could glean pertaining to Matas’ cutting ability. There is a certain art to cutting, both being able to recognize the opportunity and time your cut accordingly. Some cuts are obvious like a defender overplaying, and back-dooring to counter. These are cuts most players can execute and recognize. Similar to how there is basic passing reads and more advanced ones that show a deep understanding of the game, I believe a similar concept can be applied to cutting. There are certain impromptu cuts that can be executed, often during scramble situations, that display a high level of problem solving and court mapping. These indicators can be the separation between solid cutters and some of the best in the league. Its one of the reasons I was so high on Gradey Dick last year. An example below of this type of off the script cut:

So with this in mind I wanted to see if Matas displayed any of this higher level of cutting. My takeaways were very positive, Buzelis displayed great timing and feel on his cuts. He had hard cuts to the rim as soon as his defender was pre-occupied, sneaky cuts where he floated into space behind the defense, just tons of variety. His size and athleticism means cuts can be significantly more impactful, compared to someone like Gradey Dick. Backdoor cuts that would just end in layups for some players, become alley oop dunks for Matas. He’s scoring 1.267 points per possesion on his cuts this season, per Synergy. This is a terrific number and matches the eye test. He had multiple cuts that were missed by his teammates as well. As he plays with better and better passers at the next level this could become a huge part of his game.

Inside the arc scoring

Midrange game

This section should be quick since we talked about it earlier in the counters section. Matas’ most comfortable area on the floor is defintely the midrange. He’s got a high release and is often able to rise up whenever he wants to score. Buzelis really likes that 1 legged dirk fade and looks really comfortable taking it. He’s shooting 47.2% on off the dribble 2s, per Synergy (48 possessions), which is a great number. This shot is going complement him very well when attacking off the bounce or facing up.

Post up/face-up game

With the rise of elite pull up 3 point shooting in the league, many teams have decided to incorporate more switching into their defensive schemes. It makes sense, preventing wide open pull up 3s off the bounce and simplifying decision making for less heady defenders. More switching means more mismatches. This is where I value the ability of wings/forwards being able to post up. Possessing ancillary forwards who can punish teams for switching a guard onto them provides value on the margins. Sure, you wont call 5+ post-ups a game for them, but its one more stress point being added to the defense. In Buzelis’ case I think he can thrive in this area, specifically when he catches and faces up. However, before we get there, lets cover his the ability to back down smaller defenders and draw fouls or get good shots. Buzelis flashed some good moments here taking his defender to the rim for good shots or fouls.

Matas has had 34 post ups on the year, and has scored 0.912 points per possession on those plays, per Synergy. This is good production on albeit low volume. That’s not to say it was all sunshine and rainbows. Due to the strength issues, whenever he tried to back down players who were ready for it he often got stonewalled. Buzelis also struggled to seal his man consistently often unable to fight through or pin his man. Defenders could push him out to the 3pt line by the time he caught the ball asking for a post up.

The area of his post game I’m the highest on though is his face-up game. When I think of face-up scoring, the first image that comes to my mind is Chris Bosh. I grew up watching him destroy defenses through his face-up game. Bosh possessed an elite jumper combined with his ability off the bounce to counter defenders playing too high. Now obviously, Buzelis is currently far from Bosh as a face-up scorer, but I wanted to underline the ingredients it takes to succeed in this area. Matas possesses some good potential as a driver as we discussed earlier with multiple ways to counter on his way to the hoop. Buzelis also has a high release and comfort in the midrange area. He’s very adept in the triple threat position as well, with ability to stutter rip, jab and go, or rise up for a jump shot. All this combined really makes me excited for his potential as a face-up scorer at the next level. He has many of the ingredients to become very potent at this play type.

Shooting

Shooting and shooting development is one of the more difficult parts of evaluating a prospect for me. There’s just so much variables to account for. It strays heavily into the realm of bio-mechanics which personally, as mostly just a hoops head, I don’t have much experience with. However, I do find it fascinating, and love to learn about it. You grow up learning about good form and bad form, and what a textbook jumper should look like. Then all of sudden a Kevin Martin appears, leaning to the left and shooting the ball 2 ft from his face across his body cashing 3s. Players with weird looking shots that still end up good shooters tend to have at least 2 things in common. Good rhythm on their shot, and great touch. So, with that in mind I find myself looking for those things when trying to determine what level a shooter a prospect is.

In Buzelis' case, his reputation as a shooter is a bit weird. If you go off his senior year of high school at Sunrise Christian, you’d believe he was a good shooting prospect heading into the Ignite program. Shooting 43.1% on 3.5 attempts per game in high school I thought it would be a strength this year. Yet, if you go and look back at his prior high school career it paints a different picture. Cumulatively, from age 16.8 all the way to 18.2, he shot 28% from 3, per Cerebro sports. That is on a sample of 298 shots. So that senior year ends up looking like the outlier. Through that lens, his shooting numbers from 3 this year shouldn’t be a surprise, shooting 28.2% from behind the line. The jump shot itself, doesn’t look to have any glaring red flags. He has a pronounced dip and high release, and his form is very vertical with little sway forward. The dip and high release point means the ball as some distance to travel which could introduce room for errors. His shot didn’t always have a high release though, I was able to find some 16U EYBL footage of Matas shooting.

The release point is at his face, lower than his jumper today. So sometime in between then and his senior year he tweaked his release point. In this close up combine footage from last year, you can see the difference. Release point is above his head.

There is a couple of issues I picked up watching Matas shoot. Firstly, I think Matas has issues generating enough power consistently on his shot. He often has misses that are short, or flat and long when he tries to compensate. It seems the jump from the highschool three point line to the NBA one has been a tough adjustment process for Buzelis. The second issue is the rhythm to his shot, in some of his misses I noticed he took a beat longer than he should have and his rhythm was disrupted.

Matas is shooting 34.4 % on guarded catch and shoot threes, per Synergy. This is only 61 attempts so it most likely could be noise, but there is something to say about how shot contests can help rhythm. The urgency to get the shot off means you lean more heavily on muscle memory. Buzelis often looked more comfortable timing his dip and setting his feet quickly when a defender was closing out on him.

Overall, the case of Matas being a great shooter in the NBA isn’t that rock solid. The prior history of shooting a low percentage throughout highschool, combined with his current struggles in the G League. I mentioned earlier about rhythm and touch being importants facets of a shooting. We talked about rhythm, but how is Buzelis’ faring in the touch department? I think Matas doesn’t have great or special touch, I hinted at this earlier but the reason I say that is the amount layups and tip ins he missed. He often misjudged how to place the ball of the backboard and didn’t look too natural at times.

However, there is some optimism to be found if you dig enough. One of the main reasons to be encouraged by Matas’ potential as a shooter is his profiency from midrange (47.2% on off the dribble 2s), and other touch related areas. Buzelis is shooting 45.5% on runners and 61.1% on hooks, per Synergy. The volume is low (10-22 on runner and 8/13 on hooks), but these shots are good indicators of positive shooting touch. While only shooting 70% from the line this season, Buzelis is a career 75% from the line in his high school career. The G-League’s 1 free throw for 2 points rule can affect percentages since we have less volume overall, so that’s something to keep in mind. So while I dont think his touch is great, it still could be solid enough to project positive shooting development. All this combined makes me more comfortable believing in Matas potential of becoming a solid shooter in the NBA, maybe not a good or great one, but solid enough to not cause problems.

In the case that Matas’ doesn’t pan out as a shooter, how will it affect his development and value in the NBA? Well, I think of Buzelis as mostly a 4, and at that position I don’t believe it will be a huge negative. He still will take 3s. While he’s never been a high volume guy, this is not a player who’s afraid of shooting. Team contexts matter, and its clear that having a 4 who can’t shoot can limit you more overall, but the rest of skillset can bring positive value. I mentioned the cutting, mismatch scoring and offensive rebounding earlier, these can be ways Buzelis finds buckets. If teams ignore him when he’s standing on the perimeter, he’s shown he can cut intelligently to take advantage. Giving him space to cut and load up means he’s getting downhill with more force, which would cushion his shooting struggles. So I think he can carve out positive impact offensively even without the shot. If he shoots however, thats where his ceiling raises signficantly. A power forward who can shoot, attack closeouts, cut effectively and score in the post is extremely valuable. Not to mention what he brings on defense as well. So far though, we’ve mostly discussed avenues for Buzelis to score himself, next we’ll get into Buzelis’ ability to playmake for others.

Passing

Going through his senior year tape for the first time, I mentioned earlier I came away disappointed in Matas ability to separate off the bounce. One of the other areas I was most let down was his passing. For someone who had the point forward label attached to him, I rarely saw any high level passing reads. It wasn’t that he was a particularly awful passer but it was unremarkable. That trend continued into the G-League. Buzelis sometimes struggled to make quick decisions, often waiting a beat too long before deciding to pass, which lead to some turnovers. The execution on his passes (timing, velocity, etc) were often poor. He currently has 0.89 assist to turnover ratio, per Synergy. Over his highschool career he had a 0.9 assist to turnover ratio as well, per Cerebro. Buzelis has never particularly excelled as a passer.

His interior passing is lagging behind his kickout game, he often is always looking to kickout and missing other advantages. Yet, as more of a complementary forward than a creator, his passing reads don’t need to be all that advanced. Being able to attack close outs, and find the next pass doesn’t always require manipulation. Sure, having players who can manipulate the defense in those situations is extremely valuable, but its not a pre-requisite to becoming an effective connective passer. Quick decision making is arguably more important, and this is an area that I’m the most concerned with for Buzelis. If he doesn’t make quicker decisions, it’ll make it easier for defenses to rotate to him effectively. He still had positive reps as a passer, both in transition and attacking closeouts. Many of the better possessions ended with no assists, either the recipient turned it over or missed the shot but the flashes are there. Dump off passes attacking closeouts, finding shooters after penetrating, using his size to see over the defense. In a more healthy environment at the next level I think this is an area Buzelis can improve in.

Conclusion

Buzelis is one of the more interesting prospects in this class, his perception coming into the G-League and what he actually excels at are 2 different realities. The instinct is to see him struggle to consistently create space from a stand still, and combined with the questionable shooting dismiss him as a top 5 prospect. The preconceived notion of him being a on ball creating prospect leads even to a more harsher dismissal. Throughout my evaluation I’ve shown what how these biases coming in affected my perception of Buzelis. This is something that’s impossible to fully avoid, some of it is subconcious. I am going to try and continue to be more aware of it going forward though. Many other draft enthusiasts or scouts probably have faced the same realization, but I wanted to tie that idea into my evaluation of Buzelis since it was so prevalent.

Yet, when you look closer at what he does at his size and position, the sell becomes a lot more intriguing. None of the other forward prospects often mocked in the lotto are protecting the rim like he can (outside maybe Ryan Dunn if you have him lotto). On top of that he can move his feet well and has good potential as an on ball defender. Offensively, while he may have shooting concerns from 3, what he can bring as a driver attacking shifting defenses, terrifically timed cuts off ball and in the post as a face-up scorer is also uniquely valuable in this class. The shooting and decision making speed must improve, and there is a lot of realities where those deficiencies hold him back. However, in a class as imperfect as this one, I’m willing to bet on size, coordination and skill, hoping he can iron out the rest. That’s why I would consider Buzelis a top 5 talent in the 2024 NBA draft class.